Singapore Retail Sales Growth Strengthen 4q2025 Rhb
RHB Research expects Singapore’s retail market to experience a higher rate of sales growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, despite a modest performance so far this year. The firm has maintained its projection of 2.5% growth for the full year, citing a “cautiously optimistic” outlook for the remaining months.
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The unchanged forecast comes as Singapore recorded a stronger retail sales growth in August. Data from the Department of Statistics shows a 5.2% year-on-year increase in retail sales for August, up from the 4.6% growth seen in July.
According to RHB’s report, this marks the most significant expansion in retail sales since February 2024, when a 8.4% year-on-year growth was recorded. Including August’s figure, Singapore’s retail sales have grown 2.2% year-to-date.
The report also highlights that retail activity is expected to remain steady in the last quarter, bolstered by increasing tourism inflows during festive periods such as Deepavali and Christmas, as well as the year-end school holidays.
The distribution of SG60 and GST vouchers by the government is also expected to have a short-term positive impact on overall domestic demand. Under the GST voucher scheme, eligible Singaporeans will receive up to $850 in cash from August, in addition to the $600 in SG60 vouchers they received in July.
RHB also attributes its positive outlook to strong online sales, which they see as a reflection of healthy consumer confidence. In August, online sales accounted for 13.1% of the $4.3 billion total retail sales value, similar to July’s proportion. The majority of online sales were for computer and telecommunications equipment (54.5%), followed by furniture and household equipment (32.6%), and supermarkets or hypermarkets (11.3%).
However, RHB notes that the positive outlook for the retail market is contingent on stable economic conditions. “A potential drawback to our positive view is a possible slowing down of Singapore’s economy and a softening labour market in the second half of 2025,” the report says. Risks include weaker external demand due to broader tariff impacts and reduced labour demand, especially for the manufacturing and wholesale trade sectors.